Oil Glut Nears Its End While Gold Holds Firm in a Mixed Fundamental Standoff

Date: 11 Dec 2025 02:48 PM

Although oil markets are widely expected to face a significant glut through early 2026, pushing inventories higher and prices potentially below $60 per barrel, many analysts now argue that 2026 could be the final year of meaningful oversupply. The relatively flat futures curve shows traders are not pricing in a prolonged surplus, while shifting narratives from the IEA — which recently abandoned its “no new oil investment” stance and its forecast of peak demand by 2030 — signal growing recognition of faster-declining existing fields and rising long-term energy needs driven by AI, data centers, and resilient global demand. With upstream investment already falling and U.S. shale growth likely to stall or reverse at sustained low prices, today’s bearish environment and resulting lack of new supply could quickly transform the current glut into a structural deficit as soon as 2027–2030, setting the stage for a sharp price rebound.

Gold briefly rebounded from the $4,200 area on Thursday but failed to sustain momentum, slipping modestly lower amid conflicting signals. A mild USD recovery and an improved global risk appetite weighed on the non-yielding metal, yet dovish Federal Reserve pricing—reinforced by Chair Powell’s concerns over labor-market risks and market expectations for two 2026 rate cuts instead of the Fed’s signaled one—capped the dollar’s upside and continued to lend underlying support to XAU/USD. Lingering geopolitical tensions, including fresh Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s shadow-fleet tankers and Putin’s renewed threats over Donbas, further limited safe-haven selling pressure. With the fundamental picture mixed, traders remain cautious, and gold bears are likely to stay on the sidelines until a clearer catalyst—such as upcoming U.S. jobless claims, trade data, or a shift in USD momentum—emerges.

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